Touchdowns

Team pts is the team's implied points from the spread and total. Tgt/G and RZ Tgt/G are targets per game overall and inside the opponent's 20; xTD/G is the TDs per game those targets would normally produce. "Missed last game" means the player had no stat line in the team's most recent game. TD % is the chance of at least one TD in the game. It starts from the player's expected TDs per game, pulled toward what their target volume alone would predict (so a few early red-zone looks don't dominate), blends in the last 3 games, and is scaled by the team's implied points from the betting line, compared with the week's average (). Fair odds is that probability as an American price with no vig, for comparing against a sportsbook's. Book is the best anytime-TD price across US sportsbooks, with the book under it; Market is the median book's implied chance, which includes the books' margin, so it runs a few points high. Edge is model minus market, in percentage points. 1st TD switches the table to first-touchdown-scorer bets: the chance the player scores the game's first TD, by either team. The model takes the player's share of both teams' expected TDs, times the chance anyone scores one. First-TD books keep a 25–40% margin, so in that view Market has the margin removed. 1st TDs counts the games this season where the player scored first. Rec line is the receptions over/under most books offer, with the best over price and its book. These are model estimates and a snapshot of prices, not betting advice. Injury tags: Q Questionable, D Doubtful, O Out, IR injured reserve.

RZ Tgt, In 10 and In 5 are targets inside the opponent's 20, 10 and 5. RZ % of Tgt is the share of the player's targets that came in the red zone. xTD is expected receiving TDs: each target is worth the league-wide TE touchdown rate for where it was thrown from. TD − xTD above zero means the player has scored more than the usage suggests and is likely to cool off; below zero means the player has been unlucky. Red-zone splits come from ESPN play-by-play and can miss an occasional target.

TE touchdown rate by field position

How often a target to a tight end becomes a touchdown, from where the ball was snapped. These rates drive xTD.